5th Democratic Debate Predictions | QT Politics

5th Democratic Debate Predictions | QT Politics

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The fifth democratic debate will be hosted
by MSNBC and the Washington Post on November 20th, 2019. The event will be held at Tyler Perry Studios
in Atlanta, Georgia, making this the ‘Boo! A Madea Democratic Debate” While the debate was widely predicted to feature
far fewer candidates on stage, due to higher standards set by the DNC, it doesn’t look
like that will be the case. With Klobuchar and Gabbard recently meeting
the thresholds, at least ten candidates will appear. The other eight are: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie
Sanders, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Tom
Steyer. This means the only two candidates who appeared
in the crowded 4th debate who have not secured a place in the 5th, as of yet, are Beto O’Rourke,
who has sadly-not-so-sadly dropped out of the race, and Julian Castro—who could still
make the stage, but whose campaign is also in shambles. According to CBS and Politico, he’s closing
his offices in two critical early stages: New Hampshire and South Carolina. Time magazine also reported back on October
21st, that if he didn’t raise 800,000 dollars by Halloween, he would drop out of the race. Doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in his
campaign. At any rate, in this video I’ll give you my
predictions for everyone who has made the debate so far. I’ll talk about what you’re likely to see
from each, and where their campaign appears to be heading. Hopefully this will give you some sense of
what is likely to happen in the November the debate, and answer the question: Who’s worth watching? For Amy Klobuchar, this will be a critical
debate. She very clearly had the strongest performance
of her campaign in the fourth debate, and gained a significant boost in the polls. Even with that boost, she’s still polling
in 6th place, with an RCP average of just 2.6%. So, like I said in my debate breakdown video,
she did well for Klobuchar, but not enough to put her into serious contention. The 5th debate will determine whether this
surge was just a little blip, or the beggining of a sea change for the right wing of the
Democratic Party. Will Joe Biden looking rather vulnerable,
Klobuchar could sell herself as a choice replacement: sure, she doesn’t have the charisma of a Pete
Buttigieg, but she’s got the experience. She’s been a Senator for over a decade, she’s
given speeches in snow storms, and she’s eaten salads with hair combs. What else could you ask for in a Presidential
candidate? So, to move toward serious contention, Klobuchar
needs to build on the success she experienced in the 4th debate. She needs to continue to challenge other candidates
directly, be aggressive, deliver strong lines, and make good arguments. But, more than that, she needs to deal with
her more direct competitors. So far, Klobuchar has stood her ground against
Warren and Sanders, but she also needs to distinguish herself amongst the more conservative,
establishment candidates. Pete Buttigieg is younger, more charismatic,
and has more campaign cash. Biden has the best poll numbers, the most
name-recognition, and more money than Klobuchar. Klobuchar has to hit these two on their vulnerabilities:
for Pete, its his inexperience; for Biden, there are dozens of potential points of criticism. What I actually expect to see from Klobuchar,
well that’s a different matter altogether. Since she saw a big spike in her polls after
the 4th democratic debate, I expect she’ll conclude that she did everything right. As a result, she’ll likely go after Warren
and Bernie, but ignore her centrist competitors. Best case scenario, this will get her to 5th
place. Despite having numerous exciting performances
in past debates, Tulsi Gabbard has recurrently failed to gain serious traction in the polls. She did quite poorly in the fourth debate,
and will likely try to turn things around in the 5th. But, I would warn Gabbard supporters that
the idea that she will actually have a chance of becoming a 1st tier candidate appear extremely
remote at this point. Tulsi has historically made waves by attacking
other candidates, and may attempt to go after Warren again, as she did in the 4th debate. But, perhaps, she would want to adjust her
tactics on how, as her questions for Warren seemed ineffective for picking a good fight. One issue Gabbard may want to bring up in
this debate were the attacks issued against her by former democratic presidential nominee,
Hilary Clinton. Clinton argued that Gabbard was being groomed
by the GOP to run as a third-party candidate, and called her a Russian asset. These spurious smears were likely rooted in
Clinton’s resentment of Gabbard’s highly-publicized resignation from the DNC and endorsement of
Sanders in 2016, but not in fact. But even as one of the most famous, and disliked,
Democrats offered the gift of a prominent smear to Gabbard, her poll numbers did not
spike. This may be because her response to it was
ineffective, or because Clinton’s unsubstantiated hits were perceived as credible. A Washington post analysis of her supporters
may offer another reason: “Less educated voters are more likely than
others to support her; she had 15 percent support from those with only a high school
degree. And her supporters are less interested in
politics than other likely Democratic caucus-goers” So it could be that those most likely to back
her missed the story. At any rate, bringing it up in the debate,
would be a likely means to building her anti-establishment brand to a broader swath of discontented populists. But like I say, Tulsi’s campaign appears to
have hit a ceiling. If she were going to become a top contender,
it probably would have happened when she was the top-Googled candidate during her first
two debates. (By the way, for those of you thinking she
only got that because she’s good looking, there is at least one piece of evidence that
supports that theory: her supporters are overwhelmingly male.) Quote, WP: “Gabbard’s supporters are overwhelmingly
male. She got 7 percent of the men — and less
than 2 percent of the women — in the September sample. In October, Gabbard was the first choice of
3.3 percent of the men and just 1.9 percent of women. “ At any rate, Gabbard continues to be a fascinating
minor candidate to watch, but she has virtually no chance of becoming the nominee. She’ll probably recover in her performance,
but this will have little bearing on the race overall, at least when it comes to her own
prospects. She could lay an effective attack against
another more major candidate, and potentially land a blow to their poll numbers. But at this point, I’m beginning to doubt
her continued ability to do that either. Tom Steyer is a candidate with no experience
as a politician, and has essentially bought his way on stage for the second time. His growth in both polls numbers and donations
has relied almost exclusively on his massive self-funded ad buys. In my view, he isn’t a particularly interesting
candidate, he doesn’t have any good ideas, and he wouldn’t make for a winning Democratic
ticket. So, I want to be clear about my bias here:
I mainly regard him as a distraction from the real candidates. I thought Steyer did a terrible job in the
fourth debate, but I was not alone. He was rather universally acknowledged to
be a loser, having failed to present original ideas, challenge other candidates effectively,
or purport himself as a plausible candidate. Even CNN’s Chris Cillizza described Steyer
as a Loser, writing, “* Tom Steyer: When the most interesting
thing about you in the debate is that you wore a plaid Christmas tie, you didn’t have
a good debate.” Steyer is really a non-entity, as far as I’m
concerned. I don’t expect anything from him in the 5th
Debate. Although a far more experienced candidate,
with more charisma, better ideas, and far more political acumen, I regard Cory Booker
to be about as unlikely to make waves in this debate as Tom Steyer. Booker has recurrently had a relatively non-confrontational
approach to debating, which means he’s unlikely to knock out a major player with an attack. As for his own prospects, he peaked at 6.0%
in the RCP averages back in late February, slid down below 3% by May, and has failed
to show any chance gaining ground since. Booker’s debate performances seem to range
between utterly forgettable to charismatic, but ultimately ineffective. I don’t expect a big change this time around,
and don’t expect him to remain in the primary contest for much longer. Kamala Harris really was, in early days, a
serious factor in the Democratic debates and the primary in general. That has very clearly changed. No longer does she appear to be willing to
issue strong challenges to the biggest candidates on stage, and some how, her once formidable,
charismatic presence has become muted and easily forgettable. While Harris has enough campaign cash to stick
it out in this race for a while, she’s already showing signs that she’s looking for an off-ramp. Last week, CNN, Politico and WP reported that
she was shutting down her campaign offices in New Hampshire, and firing staff. Her campaign argued that this was just a change
in focus: that they’re pushing all in on Iowa. But in that state, she’s currently in 6th
place according to RCP, behind Warren, Buttigieg, Sanders, Biden, and even Klobuchar. This is a huge fall, as she was in 2nd place
in Iowa back in early August. Since Harris seems to be on her way out, I
strongly doubt she’ll be willing to present an aggressive strategy at the 5th Democratic
Debate. She’s really just looking now for a way to
make a graceful exit from the race. I expect she’s going to try to leave on a
positive note, and focus her efforts in this debate on making friends with the other candidates,
not enemies. She’ll likely have some choice words for Trump,
general praise for the Democratic party, and little else on offer. While Andrew Yang had a generally strong performance
in the 4th debate, and benefited from extended conversations about his issues–universal
basic income, automation, and data rights—he’s still not making any headway in the polls,
sitting currently with an rcp average of 2.4 percent. While I have long considered him to be a minor
candidate worth watching—with genuine potential to crack into serious consideration—it appears
that it just isn’t happening for him. In my view, bringing discussions of UBI to
the mainstream was already a significant victory for Yang, and he should already consider his
campaign a success. As for actually becoming a serious contender
for the nomination: that’s not particularly realistic. Yang has steadily improved in his debate performances
over time, and I will predict a strong performance this time around. He’s not likely to issue an aggressive attack
on another candidate, but he is likely advocate strongly for his issues. Up now to around 7% in the RCP averages, Pete
Buttigieg is the most plausible single-digit candidate to actually make a serious run for
the nomination. Aside from his relatively strong poll numbers
nation-wide, Pete is currently in 2nd place in Iowa, and has more campaign cash than any
other candidate, aside from grassroots favourite, Bernie Sanders. I am personally ideologically to the left
of Mayor Pete, and underwhelmed by both his policy positions and the detail of his proposals. I also have serious reservations about his
inexperience on the national stage—having only served in municipal politics. But there is no doubt in my mind that he is
highly intelligent, politically savvy, and extremely charismatic—all assets that will
serve him well in his quest to become a top competitor in this race. Coming off a strong performance in the fourth
debate, Pete Buttigieg is likely continue his new, more aggressive approach to debating
in the November contest. To gain ground, Pete will have to present
himself as the best alternative for disillusioned Biden supporters. To prove that, he will have to continue to
hammer at Sanders and Warren—the latter especially. Warren gained much of her current standing
by chipping away Biden supporters, meaning Pete could plausibly win some them over himself,
even though she is significantly more progressive than either Biden or Pete. She’s also Pete’s top competitor for Iowa
caucus, and winning there would cement the Mayor as a top-tier candidate for the rest
of the nation. Pete might also do well to attack Biden directly,
since despite continuing to stand as the front-runner in the race, he received little in the way
of attacks in the 3rd Debate, as the rest of the field apparently decided that Warren
is the candidate to topple—even though, really, she still isn’t quite that, just yet. Still, I do not expect Buttigieg to go after
Biden, since being Biden’s running mate is a reasonably likely consolation prize Pete
might win if he fails to secure the nomination himself. Biden’s other likely choices would be Klobuchar,
who has yet to prove herself to carry a strong base of support, or Kamala Harris—who would
have been a shoe-in were it not for the damage she caused to his campaign with her aggressive
attacks on Biden over busing. Like Buttigieg, Bernie Sanders had an astounding
performance in the 4th Democratic Debate, probably the best of the night. He then went on to secure endorsements from
a number of influential lefties, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib,
Noam Chomsky, and Michael Moore. Although I don’t make formal endorsements,
I will point out for full disclosure, Sanders remains my preferred candidate, and I consider
it highly unlikely at this point that my opinion will change on that. Also, I think Yang’s policies deserve serious
consideration; I think while Warren is more-or-less a watered-down Bernie on most issues, she’d
still probably be the most progressive President since FDR; and I think that Tulsi’s central
concern of ending regime change wrs is absolutely correct and important. So, I certainly don’t think Sanders is perfect,
and see praise-worthy policy ideas from several of his competitors, but I’m fairly convinced
he’s the best choice. The only reason I don’t think this isn’t a
total endorsement is that I will change my mind if need be, I will criticize him if he
does something to merit it, and I will not tell you guys to vote for him: you should
vote for whoever you believe in, based on whatever measures you deem worthy. Anyway… Bernie has seen some reasonable momentum as
of late. His RCP average the night of the debate was
15.6, and has since risen to 18.1. Since Oct 7th, he’s gained a total of 3.8
points, while his biggest progressive rival, Elizabeth Warren, has lost 4.6, meaning Bernie
is inching closer to becoming the top progressive alternative to front-runner Joe Biden. Given his positive momentum, and his history
of not deviating much in strategy from one debate to another, we can expect that Sanders
will attempt a repeat performance in this debate. He’ll focus on policy, keeping his messaging
centred around a positive defence of his own positions, and his critiques of rivals will
be limited to pointing out distinctions in their records: for example, Warren voted for
Trump’s military increases, and Biden supported the Bush Administration’s quagmire in Iraq. In the last couple of performances, Bernie
has had substantially less talking time than you might expect from a top-tier candidate. While his messaging and strategy is unlikely
to change, his campaign may be looking at ways to get him more talking time. This may just require him to be a little more
aggressive in speaking out of turn. This could also be handed to him, as his bounce
back in the polls will likely lead to more attacks from candidates like Biden and Klobuchar. While Elizabeth Warren went into the fourth
Democratic Debate in the midst of a huge surge in the polls, she enters the fifth having
lost significant ground. On one day, October 8th, 2019, she was the
front-runner in the polls, but currently, she is dangerously close to being passed by
Sanders in the National polls. In Iowa, Warren has secured first place, as
Biden has dropped precipitously, but Buttigieg has emerged as a serious challenger, off the
heels of a debate in which the two clashed over healthcare policy. In apparent response to criticisms about how
she would fund her healthcare plans, Warren recently released her own medicare for all
plan, one which promises to not raise taxes on the middle class. Warren will likely, as a result, face new
round of criticisms from Buttigieg, and from Biden, whose campaign has already issued harsh
critiques: “The mathematical gymnastics in this plan
are all geared towards hiding a simple truth from voters: It’s impossible to pay for Medicare
for All without middle class tax increases.” “To accomplish this sleight of hand, her
proposal dramatically understates its cost, overstates its savings, inflates the revenue,
and pretends that an employer payroll tax increase is something else.” Going totally on the defensive on her own
plan might be problematic in terms of optics for Warren, so she will likely make another
attempt to attack the plans of Biden, and Iowa-rival, Buttigieg. Last time around, her critique that Pete’s
plan was ‘Medicare-for-all who can afford it’, in my view, didn’t quite land, and was
difficult to fully substantiate. She would, I think, do better to criticize
the vagueness of Pete’s plan, and the inferior cost-control power of a public option plan. Overall, Warren experienced an all-out pile-on
in the 4th democratic debate. She failed to rise sufficiently to the new
challenge. This time around, she’s likely to be better
prepared for attacks, and, with her poll numbers dropping off a bit, she’s likely to experience
fewer attacks. This will likely translate to a strong performance. While faith in Joe Biden’s stock has discernibly
declined in the past few months, his polling remains relatively strong. From August to November, his peak RCP average
of 32 percent has fallen by just two points. His average has never dropped below 25%, a
threshold crossed only briefly by one other candidate. While Joe Biden has appeared to become slightly
more forceful in debates, as time goes on, his central strategy has been, and probably
should be, to avoid taking damage. Despite screaming “I got you votes” at
Elizabeth Warren last time around, which was by the way a lie, any hit he took in the polls
was temporary, and he has promptly bounced back. Debate after debate, Biden has failed to answer
questions, and had weird moments, like referring to both Booker and Sanders as the president. Still, he never drops below 25 points, and
peaks around 30. Biden is not performing well in these debates,
but his competitors have continuously failed to make his losses permanent, or turn them
to their own benefit. Biden has many vulnerabilities that could
be exploited by other candidates, but he has not received serious damage from a debate
since Harris’s busing attack. The last major attack launched on Biden seems
to have been Castro’s ‘did you forget what you said two minutes ago’ thing. Castro suffered serious backlash in the msm
for that one, and his campaign is currently in shambles. The lesson other Democrats may take from this
may be, not to go after Biden. But, if that happens, Biden could easily cruise
on through to win the nomination. Bernie is not likely to attack Biden too harshly,
as that is not his style. Buttigieg is not likely to go after him because
he’s likely hoping to be his VP pick. The candidate most likely to issue a strong
challenge to Biden might be Warren, who has benefited from criticizing him in the past. A smaller candidate could issue a forceful
attack to gain ground, but all seem to have reasons not to do so: Harris has already done so, and seems to be
all out of steam. Klobuchar seems to refuse to attack fellow
moderates. Yang and Booker are both non-confrontational
in style. Gabbard has repeatedly proven that she’s more
interested in defending Biden, rather than attacking him. And Steyer is very likely incapable of doing
so effectively. If Biden is to be beaten in this primary contest,
the bottom line is, someone’s gotta be willing to go on the offensive against him, once again. There are always risks involved with being
aggressive in these contests, but I believe whoever manages to land lasting damage to
his campaign will secure themselves into serious contention to replace him, and become the
answer to this question: Who’s worth watching? Now, before I end this video, I do want to
pay homage to two dearly departed campaigns, who left us not nearly soon enough, Tim Ryan
2020 and Beto O’Rourke 2020. Neither had any real chance left to secure
the nomination at the moment of their departures, so they did the right thing in getting out
of the way. So, much respect to them both, and I wish
them all the best in their future endeavours.

0 thoughts on “5th Democratic Debate Predictions | QT Politics”

  1. There has actually been a some talk that Yang might be the best choose for Biden. The main thoughts are that Yang has a way of pulling in Republicans and Democrats alike(have a 22% net positive rating). In a lot of ways Yang is the opposite of Biden, he is young, political outsider, and tech savvy. Yang could pull in a lot of younger people who want to see something get done.

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